Well over a year remains before we finally pick a new president, yet it seems the campaign has been going on forever already. I love politics, but I think this early start has been an overkill. It's too much too soon. The biggest issue right now is Iraq, and so they talk about it constantly instead of the important issues like the environment, health care, immigration. They don't want to open their mouths on immigration. Furthermore, the situation in Iraq is quite likely to be very different come November 2008 and January 2009.

This lack of attention to domestic policy has hurt John Edwards, my favorite candidate. He is very easily the most articulate in explaining the details of his policy proposals. Unfortunately, nobody cares about details. They want grandiose rhetoric, in the form of Barack Obama, or a chance to relive the glory years, in the form of Hillary Clinton. Democrats have this historic opportunity to elect a black(ish) man, or a woman, or a hispanic, and Edwards offers nothing nothing in the way of a historic first. He's simply another white man. And that's hurting him. What's also hurting him is his failure to do well in the debates. He has yet to shine, and he has yet to truly connect with the television audience the way he so skillfully does in person. The first primary may be six months away, but Senator Edwards is quickly losing time to get his act together. He can't expect early wins in Iowa and South Carolina to propel him to the nomination.

Clinton is right where everyone has expected her to be, at the top. Among Democrats, that is. She still does so poorly outside of the party base, that I fear her nomination would lead to four more years of a Republican White House. She has yet to do anything to allay my strong dislike and distrust of her. I can't even say for sure that I would vote for her if she is the Democratic nominee.

Did anybody expect Obama to be doing this well? I still do not believe he is knowledgeable or experienced enough to adequately develop the policies necessary to reform the nation after these 8 years of Republican nonsense. However, he seems sincere in his beliefs, and trustworthy. He needs to surround himself with smart people who can offer him good advice. If he can do that, and wins the nomination, I will vote for him.

The only other Democrats worth mentioning are Joe Biden, Christopher Dodd and Bill Richardson. All are doing very poorly in the polls, but Biden and Richardson do have some upward momentum. Dodd is a smart guy, but is getting no traction whatsoever. He should go concentrate on his work in the Senate. Biden should probably do the same. He has a habit of saying crazy things, and his nomination would provide easy fodder for the no-scruples ad makers. Richardson probably won't get much higher in the polls than he is now, given the strength of the top three, but I predict he will find himself on the Democratic ticket as the VP. He just has to learn to look better on television!

I am loath to even consider the Republicans, save the dark horse Ron Paul. If he could expand his message a little, he would be a real challenge, I think. Oh, he'd never win the Republican nomination, but he has such great appeal to independents, to young people, to those tired of the same-old, same-old from the dominant parties. A change would do us good, and nobody would be so much of a change than Ron Paul. I fear, though, that President Paul would simply set a record for vetoes, government shutdowns, and not much else. Maybe DC needs a little chaos to force it to get it's act together, though.

If I must talk about the other guys, I'll begin with Giuliani. I dislike him even more than I dislike Hillary Clinton. He's a one-note man, and that note is bad. He wants to give us the Cheney policies without the Cheney brain. America very clearly does not want more of the same, so why are the Republicans even considering Giuliani? Are they deaf? What's even more surprising is that Giuliani could very easily be the Republican nominee! It's all terror, all the time, baby!

Romney looks presidential but apparently has no problems changing his mind on anything. Even on issues that form the bedrock of modern Republican ideals, like gay rights and abortion, Romney waffles. He's a clever talker, though. Maybe a skilled vacillator wouldn't be so bad after 8 years of a stubborn block-head, though.

Even more than John Edwards, McCain has taken a serious tumble in the last couple of months. He was appealing in 2000, but now he has three big weights around his neck: Iraq, Immigration and Age. He has taken two very unpopular positions on two very big issues, and his poll numbers and cash flow have dwindled as a result. Cause and effect? All evidence points to it. Also, he would be the oldest president elected, with a history of cancer. Nothing brings America together like the death of a sitting president.

Fred Thompson might finally be able to talk some sense into those Republicans about Giuliani. He's polling well even before entering the race-- contributing to McCain's decline. I think he and Romney will be the guys fighting it out in the end.

The other Republicans are so low in the polls they barely matter, except to take up space and time at the debates. Huckabee would do well to hang in there, though, and aim for that VP spot.